/home/bill/PROJECTS/Investments/References/200326 MarketWatch Howells Covid blog comments.txt https://www.marketwatch.com/story/reopen-america-by-easter-this-staggering-chart-shows-why-that-could-be-an-error-of-epic-proportions-2020-03-26?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=E-mail&utm_content=replied-your-message&spot_im_redirect_source=email&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true&spot_im_reply_id=sp_ekXntyLk_132C66D4-6F66-11EA-82CE-84B502831015_c_bJ1p4m_r_Ak2pNb&utm_spot=sp_ekXntyLk Home Economy & Politics In One Chart President Trump this week pointed to Easter Sunday as a “beautiful” target date for the United States to get back to business, with “packed churches all over our country.” Dr. Anthony Fauci was a bit more realistic about it. “You don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline,” he said on CNN Wednesday night. “If you keep seeing this acceleration, it doesn’t matter what you say. One week, two weeks, three weeks — you’ve got to go with what the situation on the ground is.” Advertisement If the coronavirus does, in fact, make the timeline, and if this interactive chart from the New York Times has it right, the target date should be stretched well beyond April 12. The Times, with input from epidemiologists, used this visual to show what a quick return to normal could mean in terms of infections — 128 million cases — versus what we could see if we continue social-distancing measures for two months — 14 million cases. “These numbers offer a false precision, for we don’t understand Covid-19 well enough to model it exactly,” the Times wrote. “But they do suggest the point that epidemiologists are making: For all the yearning for a return to normalcy, that is risky so long as a virus is raging and we are unprotected.” On epidemiologist quoted in the story, Larry Brilliant of the Ending Pandemics organization, warned that Trump’s Easter timeline could have disastrous implications. “I think history would judge it an error of epic proportions,” he said. The number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. surpassed 1,000 Wednesday night, according to Johns Hopkins University. New York City and state remains the hardest hit region of the country with about 30,000 cases and 300 fatalities. The latest tally shows that the total number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. rose another 14,000 to more than 69,000. Meanwhile, the latest stat from the jobs front clearly shows the huge impact coronavirus is having on the U.S. economy. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week rocketed to a record 3.28 million as large parts of the U.S. economy shut down and companies laid off scores of workers to deal with the pandemic. The stock market, however, has been on the mend in a big way this week, with another day of gains taking shape on Thursday. At last check, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 6.337% was up more than 1,200 points while both the S&P 500 index SPX, 6.075% and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, 5.415% were firmly higher, as well. Read Next Read full story These small-business owners made their dreams come true — and then the coronavirus hit MarketWatch spoke to four small business owners about how they’re coping and adapting. More On MarketWatch ‘You don’t make the timeline; the virus makes the timeline,’ says Dr. Anthony Fauci Gov. Cuomo says $2 trillion stimulus bill is ‘terrible’ for New York Fox News political analyst on saving the U.S. economy over people’s lives: It’s ‘entirely reasonable’ About the Author Shawn Langlois Shawn Langlois is an editor and writer for MarketWatch in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @slangwise. Advertisement SmartAsset.com Community Guidelines • FAQs Conversation(103) Sort byNewest ********************************* Rusty Slade Anybody else notice the 2 month chart tail? . .. . Is it implying rate of infections are inevitable? Abby I good question on bad charting..... Rusty Slade They should have caught that. . Given the sensitivity of the topic, it seemed obvious to not want to imply that. Or if that is the data, show a longer time frame to either validate it, or eliminate that. Sean Troutt Yes, but if we can buy enough time for effective treatments to be developed, then we have succeeded. I was going to say win, but this looks like one of those cases where everyone comes out a looser, or as a whole we come out as losers. William Howell It's labelled 2 months social distancing, but looks like it assumes ongoing isolation. In any case, slowing down exponential growth isn't the same as stopping it. I find most discussions on coronavirus to be misleading - viruses don't disappear after quarantine or the end of a pandemic period. [Epidemics, pandemics] come in waves over [decades, centuries, etc]. It will be interesting to see if natural immunization (exposure survivors, as throughout history) exceeds belated vaccine program effects. It would be cool to see if epigentic treatments could help - but that may be for the long-term future? Rusty Slade Swineflu killed many more people than covid at this point and I don't recall the urgency for a vaccine in that case. William Howell Rusty Slade - Thanks for pointing that out! I didn't have the swine flu in perspective. By the way, from my own [quick, unscientific] look into the history of pandemics a decade or so ago, many people have pointed out the correlation of timing (roughly) with sunspots, for what that's worth. Corona virus is right on schedule, and there were scattered news items about concerns over potential influenza problems, but so far so good? http://www.billhowell.ca/Pandemics,%20health,%20and%20the%20Sun/_Pandemics,%20health,%20and%20the%20sun.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza : "... It is estimated that in the 2009 flu pandemic 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people, contracted the illness—more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate. In August 2010, the World Health Organization declared the swine flu pandemic officially over. ..." Rusty Slade The sun spot issue is interesting. . .I don't know how to process that data, but it's interesting. William Howell Nobody is good at modelling solar activity - I've casually followed this for 15+ years. To me, "sunspots" are a proxy for many, many different [Earth, Solar, Astro] phenom with an ~11 year half cycle (~22 year full). One item that has come up in pandemic discussions is the rate of mutations, which might increase during low sunspot activity (such as the last 1-2 years). When solar activity is down, so are our electro-magnetic "shields" (Solar & Earth) that protect us from the insanely high-energy "cosmic-galactic rays". My impression is that these (or secondary etc cascading showers of lower-energy particles as the Earth's surface is approached) have been at all-time highs for the modern scientific record during the current sunspot low. There is a delay of several years between activity and pandemic, if I remember correctly. Not to mention that it is possible that we are entering into a Grand Solar Minimum, but there is absolutely no consensus on that. So much the better - consensus means that nobody is thinking. Copyright © 2020 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Service, Privacy Notice and Cookie Notice.