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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L16712, doi:10.1029/2005GL023429, 2005

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years

Willie W.-H. Soon

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA


Abstract

This letter offers new evidence motivating a more serious consideration of the potential Arctic temperature responses as a consequence of the decadal, multidecadal and longer-term persistent forcing by the ever-changing solar irradiance both in terms of total solar irradiance (TSI, i.e., integrated over all wavelengths) and the related UV irradiance. The support for such a solar modulator can be minimally derived from the large (>75%) explained variance for the decadally-smoothed Arctic surface air temperatures (SATs) by TSI and from the time-frequency structures of the TSI and Arctic SAT variability as examined by wavelet analyses. The reconstructed Arctic SAT time series based on the inverse wavelet transform, which includes decadal (5–15 years) and multidecadal (40–80 years) variations and a longer-term trend, contains nonstationary but persistent features that are highly correlated with the Sun's intrinsic magnetic variability especially on multidecadal time scales.

Received 9 May 2005; accepted 29 July 2005; published 27 August 2005.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537); 3280 Mathematical Geophysics: Wavelet transform (3255, 4455).

Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 416665 bytes)

Citation: Soon, W. W.-H. (2005), Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16712, doi:10.1029/2005GL023429.