/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/Pandemics, Kp index, sunspots/Tapping, Mathias, Surkan - Influenza pandemics since 1700, true, global, major.txt

K.F. Tapping, R.G. Mathias, D.L. Surkan, "Influenza pandemics and solar activity". Canadian J. Infectious Diseases, vol 12, no 1, pp  61-62, Jan-Feb 2001

graph : 
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/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/Pandemics, Kp index, sunspots/sunspot daily total 1818-present - Title.xcf

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/media/bill/SWAPPER/Projects - mini/Pandemics, Kp index, sunspots/Kp_bins by3hr NOAA-Potsdam 1933-2020 - Title.xcf


Pandemics Listed by Garrett Pandemics Listed by Potter
Years Magnitude Phase* Years Magnitude Phase*
1729-30,High,+0.20,1729-33,High,+0.20
1732-33,High,+0.50,-,-,-
1742-43,Moderate,+0.36,-,-,-
1761-62,High,+0.00,1761-62,Low,+0.00
1767,Moderate,-0.22,-,-,-
1775-76,Moderate,-0.33,-,-,-
1781-82,High,+0.33,1781-82,High,+0.33
1788-89,Low,+0.07,1788-90,Low,+0.07
1800-02,Moderate,-0.33,1799-1802,Moderate?,+0.42
1830-33,High,+0.00,1830-33,High,+0.10
1837-37,High,-0.10,-,-,-
1847-48,High,-0.08,1847-48,Moderate,-0.07
1850-51,Moderate,+0.15,-,-,-
1857-58,Mild,-0.27,1857-58,Low,-0.27
1873-75,Mild,+0.27,-,-,-
1889-90,High,-0.33,1889-90,High,-0.33
-,-,-,1900,Low?,-0.50
1918-19,High,+0.10,1918-20,High,+0.10
1946,?,+0.20,1946-48,Low,+0.20
1957,High,+0.00,1957-58,High,+0.00
1968-70,High,+0.00,1968-70,High,+0.00
1977,?,-0.20,1977-78,High,-0.20
* This quantity, phase offset from activity maximum, is described later in the text.


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Critiques of Tapping, Mathias, Surkan - Influenza pandemics since 1700

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S. Towers 29Aug2017 "Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association", Epidemiology & Infection, Volume 145 Issue 13, pp. 2640-2655  https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/sunspot-activity-and-influenza-pandemics-a-statistical-assessment-of-the-purported-association/06DDEE622D8ACFD42B3E1564278BD3FC/core-reader

I appreciate the work of S. Towers, and it is important to keep it in mind.  However, his statistical analysis may be a better illustration of the catastrophic failures of [rational, logical, scientific] reasoning by essentially all [government, academic] research scientists, than an illustration that the work of Tapping etal is not useful.  Frankly, the problem isn't Towers lack of expertise in [pandemic, solar, etc] sciences, it's a lack of understanding of essentially ALL of us (despite decades of expertise, or whatever) of the the basis for statistical analysis.  Major issue include : 

1)  Figure 2, the cornerstone of Tower's analysis, is unreadable even with zoom in.  I'm not impressed, and it's hardly an incentive to search through supplementary materials given the other failings of the critique.
2)  Towers focuses uniquely oin the phasing, and ignores the 800 pound gorillas!  He seems COMPLETELY oblivious to the "quasi-cycle" nature of the phenomena, and that is NOT his fault, as essentially all [government, academic] scientists reliably fail in the same way.
3)  a lack of understanding that all statistical tools have implicit models (no matter [non-parametric, model] basis) 
4)  no apparent understanding of the implications of using [small-world, pass] "Universal Function Approximators", and how those can yield the correct results with total crap models.  While Towers tools applied in this case don't fall into that category, to do useful statistical analysis he would run into this problem.  I wouldn't hold my breath....
5)  Sunspot numbers have undergone major "updates" (circa 2015?, before the author's critique).  This is NOT and issue with Tower's critique, just that I am far too familiar with SCREAMINGLY "turbic" thinking (i.e. [dishonest, dysfunctional, delinquent, backstabbing, cowardly, parasitic, lazy]) in too many other areas of science, notably [climate, geology, astronomy, fundamental theoretical physics, etc], in what looks to be "the rule rather than the exception" across science.